An interesting game of brinkmanship is now playing out over the question of the Maori seats on the Auckland Super City Council. To recap on the last 12 hours or so, an email allegedly written by Tau Henare, is released by TV3 suggesting that Rodney threatened  to end the coalition if there were Maori seats. Rodney says that is not true, but that yes he would have to resign as a Minister if there were Maori seats. John Key’s office make placating noises that discussions are on-going. Tariana Turia is worried the ACT tail is wagging the National dog. Sounds like a Coronation St script.

There no doubt is intense negotiation about Maori seats. This is something that Hide and Key stoked by moving away from the Royal Commission recommendations. Its high stakes stuff for all involved, including the Maori Party who if there are not seats will be forced to support a government that is working fundamentally against the interests of those they were elected to represent.

But my question for this morning is who would have leaked the email?  Possibilities abound, and we welcome your thoughts.  A few starters.

Steven Joyce:  Joyce is running strategy for the Nats. If the Nats are going to have Maori seats, which will be unpalatable to many of their supporters,  then Joyce wants the story to be one of ’strong leadership” by Key.  He can also be seen to deal to Hide.  Equally Joyce can now gauge public reaction.  If it swings in behind Hide, he needs to be able to present a deal with Hide as the only route to stable government.

Tau Henare:  Henare can see that he is struggling to convince his colleagues that there should be Maori seats.  Never one for the subtle strategy he is putting his views out into the public to see if  the reaction of the Maori Party ( and their general uneasiness about Rodney) can generate enough support in his Caucus for the seats.

Rodney Hide: never underestimate Rodney’s capacity for Machivellian games.  If he thinks he is going to lose on the Maori seats issue this is a perfect way to call John Key’s bluff.  He gets to take the ‘moral’ high ground in terms of his own support base, and possibly generate enough heat to convince Key that there should not be seats.

Whatever, the losers in this particular game are the people of Auckland, and most especially the Maori population. If only the government had stuck with the Royal Commission recommendation.