Archive for September, 2009

Letter from America VII- The Accidental Tourist

September 28th, 2009

When we lived in New York a decade ago we used to have a kind of kitset itinerary for visitors depending on how long they stayed. We had the two week tour, the five day tour, and even the intensive two day tour.  The latter involved a hurtle up the Empire State, the early ferry to the Statue of Liberty, Met, Broadway show. It was fun, kinda exhausting, but a bit superficial in all honesty.

It feels like John Key has been on the diplomatic equivalent of the two day tour.  It is not that often I found myself in agreement with Fran O’Sullivan but her column in Saturday’s Herald zeros in on the celebrity approach to our international relations from Key. Fran says

When Key first became PM his boyish “aw shucks” approach to meeting the Queen, or even departing US President George W. Bush at Apec, was endearing.

But with nearly a year as PM under his belt he should now be notching up some foreign policy achievements.

This is a good point. Key’s lack of foreign policy experience was only a minor issue at the election, and his generally affable nature seemed to get him off on a good footing in international meetings. But, as we all know, that is fine for the first date, the next ones need to have a bit more going on if the relationship is to flourish. Fran continues

Instead our Prime Minister is now on the verge of being seen as a celebrity-obsessive himself, a political groupie of the first order who will not let a chance go to embellish his Rolodex by opportunistically hunting down major stars like Bill Clinton or Tony Blair to learn leadership skills from the masters.

For a former “master of the universe” who has made buckets shoving around the currencies of many of the countries whose leaders he is now pallying up to, it is all a bit cringe-making.

Fran goes on to say she has seen Key do something substantive on foreign policy, but to be honest there is scant evidence of that in his statements, despite a nicely crafted, but light on detail speech to the GA that has been phisked by my colleague Phil Twyford, here.

Fran also raises questions about why New Zealand is returning the SAS to Afghanistan as the rest of the world contemplates reducing their contribution.

New Zealanders should care that Key has committed the SAS special forces to Afghanistan at a time when other US friends and allies are on the verge of withdrawing their troops.

Other political leaders now believe the Nato-led war against the Taleban will prove just as intractable as the Soviets’ doomed foray into Afghanistan.

Key and Obama have apparently had serious talks by phone on Afghanistan. But our Prime Minister won’t tell us the real substance in the secret letters he has exchanged with the US President.

We shouldn’t have to wait until or if an SAS soldier comes home in a body bag before expecting answers to the hard questions.

Certainly many of those I spoke to in DC and elsewhere were taken aback NZ is pushing on with something that even the Obama administration is not yet confident about.

There is a lot more to being a PM than taking photos and meeting people, and I am with Fran here, the celebrity approach needs to end sometime very soon if NZ is to retain its credibility on the world stage.

Sue Bradford Resigns

September 25th, 2009

Colleagues will no doubt have much to add, but can I express my deep sadness that Sue has decided to resign. She has been a staunch and articulate advocate for those that have needed it most- the young, the poor and the marginalised. Her contribution and her presence will be truly missed. From a Labour point of view I hope we can continue to work with Sue in her new life outside of Parliament. Kia kaha, Sue.

Letter from America VI- Obama and the 4Cs

September 25th, 2009

Probably my favourite paper at university was a second year American history course taken by Dr Rob Rabel at Otago University.  It was always going to be a favourite when Rob let me do an essay on whether Happy Days was a reflection of the social climate of the 1950s (conclusion- no it was a reflection of the yearning in the 70s for a version of the 50s that possibly did not actually exist).

One of the things Rob emphasised was that American voters hugely valued character in their politicians.  He drew a picture with the Nixon period at the centre that showed that incresingly the character, integrity and value set of a politician mattered to Americans. For Barack Obama most Americans I have met on this visit have a sense of a strong character. He has fessed up to a few indiscretions in his youth, but he has generally engaged Americans as someone with personal integrity- a good husband and father, honest, forthright and not likely to lead them astray.

One thing everyone we have met with agrees is that Obama has bucket loads of another very important C- charisma.  It is an essential trait for an American President, and anyone who meets him or hears him speaks comes away in awe of man who can hold a crowd, send a message, give off a clear emotion.

But the question that keeps being asked in meetings here is the other critical C- credibility. On any number of issues people are looking for the substance to match the undoubted vision and rhetoric. Establishing credibility was the same answer to questions I put to a left leaning academic and right leaning economist on how he would succed with climate change and healthcare respectively. Both said that Obama needed to establish his credibility in these areas if he was to bring the American public with him.  On climate change it is to present a credible position that finds a multilateral solution that does not “destroy” the American economy, and on healthcare to credibly show how all Americans will be better off with his reforms.

So how, in this madly complicated, multi layered society, can you build credibility? Obama has blitzed the Sunday talk-shows, and is easily the most media accessible President in the modern telecommunications era.  But he is running into another problem- the credibility gap created by the very media agencies he is on.  We had a great presentation here on the increasing partisanship of the major media outlets, and it is not running in Obama’s favour.  More and more people are watching the cable networks and listening to talkback both of which running heavily against him.

In the campaign Obama was credited with speaking directly to the people through a potent combination of new technology and old fashioned organising and campaigning. There are some on the Democrat side of politics who are looking to the Obama administration to recapture that spirit now, before the key policy debates get away on him.

For many, including me I might say, we want to give him the benefit of the doubt.  His working style is often of low-key engagement, working the room rather than shouting through a megaphone.  But that is a slow path to establishing public control of the issues.

Whatever, spending time here makes me realise the value of another C, that was fairly absent in the last eight years in the USA. Competence.  That is one thing with Obama that Americans can be sure of, and very grateful for.

Letter from America V - A change in the weather

September 22nd, 2009

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One of the things I love about the US is the stunning accuracy of weather forecasting. That might sound geeky, but honestly they can tell you to the minute what is coming your way. The advantages of a big continent I guess. We had ran in the midwest today, autumn has arrived.

Meanwhile in New York today the folks behind Yes Men have issued up to a million fake copies of the New York Post to highlight the importance of action on climate change at a string of meetings in US in next week or so (G20, UN) and leading up to Copenhagen. This stuff matters on the East Coast. Everywhere we went in Washington DC climate change was the order of the day (just behind healthcare and Kanye West). Obama kicked off with the Green jobs package, and there is massive work going on in terms of renewable energy research, vehicle emission standards and incentives for green building development.

In terms of the international negotiations it looks like a US position with numbers and dates and targets is unlikely before December given the need to get agreement in the Senate, and vested interests having their say. On the positive side many believe that the US would be in a position to talk about the ‘architecture’ of a post Kyoto agreement, and serious bilateral discussions had already taken place with China and India in this regard.

In Iowa there is contrast. Today we visited a huge plant that produces millions of litres of ethanol a week. Part of the American response to climate change? Well, maybe, except that the plant runs on coal, tonnes of the stuff. They are looking at alternatives but for now they go on with the coal. To be fair others are interested and some farmers noted they were happy with a voluntary market based mechanism to deal with climate change, but more traditional economic issues dominate.

Maybe in a country as big as this it is impossible to get people on the same page, but the problem with an issue like climate change of course is that it requires change and adaptation from everyone if it is going to be addressed. And they don’t get (in all respects) the New York Post in these parts.

Letter from America IV- Multilateralism on the Mississippi

September 20th, 2009

Lets be honest, Muscatine is not a town I had ever heard of. Sitting on the banks of the Mississippi River in rural Iowa, it is a fairly sleepy town. Perhaps about the least likely place in the world to find a think tank dedicated to preaching the virtues of multilateralism to Americans. As one of our party remarked yesterday it is probably a great place to have a think tank, as there is not much else to do but think!

The Stanley Foundation is the legacy of C.Maxwell Stanley. Mr Stanley was a Muscatine native, a moderate Republican and a successful enginner who having spent time abroad, in Africa particularly, decided to devote some resources to supporting the notion that multilateralism is the way forward for US Foreign Policy. His son Richard is the Chair of the Foundation, and is still very much engaged, attending the roundtable held for our group yesterday.

The foundation’s task is not an easy one. Multilateralism is not the American way. The rugged individualism that characterises the stereotyped American psyche also pervades foreign policy. Why should American bow or compromise to anyone, let along the collective will of nations much its smaller? Certainly the Bush administration grabbed this notion and ran with it, neatly lining it up with its overarching doctrine of governing by Fear, with a capital F.

Yet here, and in other parts of the foreign policy community there is cautious optimisim that the Obama administration is embracing multilateralism, albeit cautiously. Multilateralism is of course the international embodiment of the the message of Hope that Obama so skillfully developed in the campaign. If we work together we can overcome all obstacles.

Obama’s positioning is now being regularly described as one of engagement. He is working hard, often quietly behind the scenes at developing the relationships he needs to solve problems that are beyond any individual country. As ever with Obama tone and symbol are important. He reversed Bush’s decision about a missile defence system in Europe just as the G20 is about to begin. We have heard he will deliver substantive and newsworthy messages in his UN General Assembly speech, including around climate change. The evolving administration position on climate change (on which I plan to blog more fully) is based around a recognition that progress is only possible in lock step with China, India and others.

There are of course concerns. Obama is still a politician playing in the toughest political league in the world. Domestic policy agendas and conerns about poll ratings mean he is moving slowly. If anyone (Iran, Russia etc) look like they will try to exploit the approach of engagement and compromise then pressure will come to bear to show some more teeth.

But in Muscatine there is optimism, and yes, hope, and that is not something they have felt for a long time.




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