John Armstrong in this morning’s Herald has given his verdict on the Maori seats imbroglio. Essentially he says this was not a dispute that was going to develop into a crisis but it is an example of slack coalition management. I disagree with John’s analysis of the gravity of the situation, but I found one comment he made particularly interesting
But the National Cabinet was never going to reverse its April decision ruling out Maori seats and suddenly endorse the idea.
Really? Why then was John Key negotiating with the Maori Party over a possible deal? I am quite convinced from everything I have heard from Pita Sharples, Hone Harawira and others that they thought they were negotiating in good faith with Key about a deal. Further, that would seem to be the reason that Key went to see Hide in June.
Managing coalition arrangements is tough stuff. I played a minor part in managing theses relationships in my time as an Advisor in Helen Clark’s office. It takes enormous energy and time, a fair degree of flexibility, but above all bucket loads of goodwill and good faith. If John Armstrong is correct and National really did never have any intention of changing its position then this episode will have done far more damage to the long term stability of this government than he thinks.
Posted in ACT, Maori Party and Auckland. |
Today, I briefly thought we might get an answer to the question I posed last week about who actually leaked Tau Henare’s email . This was the question that was put by media to Tau Henare, but his only response was to describe Rodney Hide as a ‘buffoon’ and a ‘jerk-off’. Oh dear.
The tail truly is wagging the dog here. From Rodney Hide and Pita Sharples answers in the House today we learn that the reason John Key went to see Hide in early June was to see how he would feel about a possible deal Key was doing with the Maori Party on Maori seats. Hide told him that he would have to resign as Minister if that happened, and lo and behold no deal is done. Key has acknowledged that Hide’s threat was ‘ a factor’ in the Cabinet decision. I think this reflects poorly on Key’s leadership, and Hide must be delighted that he can play the PM in this way with 3% of the vote behind him.
Meanwhile the Select Committee process on this issue seems to be utterly irrelevant. I actually feel really sorry for John Carter who in my observation has done a great job with the Committee, and the other members who put in so much time. Above all I think the submitters and the Committee were owed the courtesy of the Select Committee finalising its report before announcements were made. Alas no, somewhere between Rodney tossing his toys, Tau losing the plot and John doing a flip-flop, the Parliamentary process went out the window.
Posted in Henare, Hide, Auckland and Democracy. |
An interesting game of brinkmanship is now playing out over the question of the Maori seats on the Auckland Super City Council. To recap on the last 12 hours or so, an email allegedly written by Tau Henare, is released by TV3 suggesting that Rodney threatened to end the coalition if there were Maori seats. Rodney says that is not true, but that yes he would have to resign as a Minister if there were Maori seats. John Key’s office make placating noises that discussions are on-going. Tariana Turia is worried the ACT tail is wagging the National dog. Sounds like a Coronation St script.
There no doubt is intense negotiation about Maori seats. This is something that Hide and Key stoked by moving away from the Royal Commission recommendations. Its high stakes stuff for all involved, including the Maori Party who if there are not seats will be forced to support a government that is working fundamentally against the interests of those they were elected to represent.
But my question for this morning is who would have leaked the email? Possibilities abound, and we welcome your thoughts. A few starters.
Steven Joyce: Joyce is running strategy for the Nats. If the Nats are going to have Maori seats, which will be unpalatable to many of their supporters, then Joyce wants the story to be one of ’strong leadership” by Key. He can also be seen to deal to Hide. Equally Joyce can now gauge public reaction. If it swings in behind Hide, he needs to be able to present a deal with Hide as the only route to stable government.
Tau Henare: Henare can see that he is struggling to convince his colleagues that there should be Maori seats. Never one for the subtle strategy he is putting his views out into the public to see if the reaction of the Maori Party ( and their general uneasiness about Rodney) can generate enough support in his Caucus for the seats.
Rodney Hide: never underestimate Rodney’s capacity for Machivellian games. If he thinks he is going to lose on the Maori seats issue this is a perfect way to call John Key’s bluff. He gets to take the ‘moral’ high ground in terms of his own support base, and possibly generate enough heat to convince Key that there should not be seats.
Whatever, the losers in this particular game are the people of Auckland, and most especially the Maori population. If only the government had stuck with the Royal Commission recommendation.
Posted in Auckland and Maori. |
